Decision Analysis of Environmental Problems Introduction and Outline

The purpose of this paper is to indicate the applicability of decision analyses to environmental problems, which we define to be those problems where the alternatives might alter the natural environment. Thus, we are concerned with possible changes in our air, water, and lard caused by, for example, auto emissions, noise, nuclear reactors, extinction of animal or floral species, weather modification, irrigation, and overpopulation. All of the problems of interest possess a number of characteristics which contribute to their complexity. There is often no consensus on what one should strive to achieve with regard to the environment, and few standard measures to indicate this achievement. These problems always have multiple objectives, and consequently, any analysis must address the inevitable tradeoffs which occur. In this regard, the basic tradeoff is usually between economic and material development and the quality of the environment and these effects often reverber:^te for many years after the initial decision is made. Furthermore, there is a large degree of uncertainty about the eventual impact of each of the alternative "solutions" to environmental problems. Finally, many of the environmental problems do not clearly fall under the responsibility of